Posts tagged ‘sterling’

Every Cloud . . .

The gilt market has staged a modest rally over the past couple of weeks though this should not fool us: there remains a good deal of attention focused on the inflationary outlook. Data for January, out earlier this month, was entirely unsurprising on this front. Input prices were up by more than 20%, eclipsing the prior peak of +17.6% reached in 2011, CPI is almost back on target and RPI ex mortgage interest payments came in just shy of +3%. The ONS quite predictably singled out currency weakness and fuel costs as the main culprits.

But the weak currency is not all bad news as we were reminded with the publication of GDP figures for the UK this Wednesday. Export growth of over 4% on the final quarter of last year was celebrated by some of those on the Leave side of the Brexit vote; though there is considerable quarter-to-quarter volatility in this data it was, undeniably, positive.

In fact there was already evidence of this effect from industrial production numbers out for December a couple of weeks ago. The yearly IP increase of +4.3% was the highest posted since the country’s recovery from the Great Recession and smashed expectations. Looking beyond exports too there was good news from the personal consumption component of GDP, which hit a solid +0.7% for Q4 while the Q3 estimate was revised up to +0.9%, suggesting a Brexit bounce. Business investment – as highlighted by the Remain side – flattened off into the end of the year but the picture is unequivocally of an economy ticking along rather nicely and enjoying a boost from its currency-enhanced competitiveness.

Returning to the theme of inflation, there has been some coverage of the oncoming squeeze on real wages and that is a perfectly valid concern. However this cloud may not be quite as dark as all that. As of December both headline RPI and average earnings growth hit +2.6%, meaning that real wage growth was zero – not a supportive situation for the economy. But throughout the period from 2010-2014 real wage growth was negative, on several occasions falling below -3% (and hitting a nadir of -3.8% at one point). Over the same horizon annual growth in household consumption averaged 1% and broad GDP growth +2%. Today, RPI inflation would have to hit 5.6% plus to achieve the same depressive force on real wages. That is a risk and by coincidence exactly the peak reached in the autumn of 2011, but we are not there yet.

Some have turned to the second consecutive month of contracting retail sales as evidence of consumer weakness but again the short-term data here is incredibly volatile. The six month running mean for annual growth in retail sales was +4.9% as of January, a little less than double the average rate over the past 20 years. Might there be a sustained reversal in consumer behaviour? It’s possible – but the GfK consumer confidence survey actually rose for two consecutive months into January.

For investors, the big picture is therefore as follows. The UK economy is growing at a healthy rate, “despite Brexit”. This is in part due to the weak pound; a currency depreciation is a straightforward monetary expansion and this seems to have been forgotten. There is presently a risk that rising inflation will take some of the edge off the growth rate but on the basis of current data and recent history we ought not to be too anxious. Markets in some respects do appear complacent about the risk of more seriously damaging price behaviour – but that is another story.

24/02/2017 at 5:32 pm

Conspiracy Theories

Let’s start with the facts.

  • Yesterday saw the release of the Bank of England’s latest quarterly Inflation Report.
  • For the second time, its growth forecast for 2017 was revised up. This now stands at 2% as against the 0.8% forecast in the wake of the EU referendum result, which the Bank officially and Mark Carney personally expected to usher in immediate economic disaster.
  • Projected unemployment now stands at 5.0%, up from a 2017 forecast of 5.5% last August.
  • Despite this the CPI forecast for this year has been trimmed back: to 2.7% down from 2.8% back in November.
  • The “equilibrium unemployment rate” [a.k.a. the “natural unemployment rate”, a.k.a. the “non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment” (NAIRU)] has been revised down from 5% to “around” 4.5%.
  • Despite its lower CPI forecast the Bank’s sub-trend growth forecast for the years following this one (+1.6% for both 2018 and 2019) is predicated on squeezed real wages under pressure from higher inflation.

Governor Carney took considerable pains to wipe the egg off his face by way of his opening remarks to the press conference yesterday. He admitted, obliquely, that consumer behaviour has not remotely suffered in the way which the Bank assumed it would last summer. But this was dismissed as the least important reason for the higher growth outlook, behind the Autumn Statement, improvements in economic confidence abroad and supportive financial conditions. Be that as it may, Mr Carney’s insouciant defence of his institution’s forecasting record does speak of a certain strength of character and for that at least he may perhaps be applauded.

The fact remains, however, that monetary conditions are still set firmly in emergency mode at a time when inflation is projected to exceed the notional target, the economy is close to full employment and growth is nudging trend. From its rhetoric, however, the Bank is wedded to accommodating unspecified and unquantifiable risks surrounding Brexit and seems intent on keeping policy unchanged for the foreseeable future.

This already looked curious last summer. Today it seems downright insane.

Now to the conspiracy.

Britain is no stranger to having her financial affairs managed on the basis of seeming insanity. Back in 1999 Gordon Brown infamously sold a large amount of the country’s gold reserves in an auction process which he announced publicly in advance. This secured him a bargain basement price for the sale. Gold subsequently multiplied in value and the period was dubbed the “Brown bottom” as a result.

The official explanation for the sale was that it would rebalance the country’s foreign exchange reserves away from a volatile commodity and into thrusting new assets such as euros. Gossip emerged later, however, that at least one major bank, likely JP Morgan, had been shorting gold to fund asset purchases in some size – a classic “carry trade” – and was threatened with serious difficulties should the price rise. Brown’s actions were therefore explicable as being for the greater good of the financial sector: there was method in the madness.

A similar case could be made today. The Brexit vote set sterling on a downward trend which persisted into the autumn. Last year’s foreign asset returns, in sterling terms, were astronomically higher than long run expected rates. And with interest rates near zero the pound is very cheap to borrow. (Remember too that it is one of the world’s reserve currencies and extremely liquid.)

Last year, then, the sterling carry trade was one of the deals of the century. As with the gold carry trade in the 90s, however, if the price of the borrowed asset goes up it doesn’t look very good for the borrowers. A rise in the value of the pound due to changing expectations for interest rates could well pose a risk to one or more banks assessable by a Bank of England Governor as systemic.

Surely it would be absurd to think that the MPC was secretly conspiring to hold down the value of sterling? Well – probably. But its official position appears no less absurd. It is also worth noting that the one key reaction to yesterday’s release and Mark Carney’s comments was a fall in the value of the pound. (Sterling had gone up as high as $1.27 in the morning, then crashed down towards $1.25 again over the course of the day.) The Bank’s forecast for the exchange rate is of near-complete stability at the current level into 2019 – or should that read, “the Bank’s target”?

It is an intriguing possibility. But this blog cannot go in for tin foil hats. So let us conclude simply by repeating the observation that the Bank’s current stance is extraordinary, and, apparently, inexplicable.

03/02/2017 at 6:11 pm

Simmering Gently

Followers of the UK’s business media will have noticed coverage of an unfamiliar subject this week. On Tuesday we discovered that the annual rate of CPI inflation had rocketed up to 1%. Last week this blog opined that it was actually input prices which would merit close attention; this did not happen so detail on those shortly. First, however, let us deal very quickly with the headline rates.

1% on the CPI is indeed “the highest rate of inflation for nearly two years”. But that is not saying terribly much for two reasons:

  1. Over the longer term 1% is an insignificant number. Before the recent period of energy-driven disinflation CPI hadn’t fallen as low as 1% since September 2002, when the world was still recovering from the collapse of the TMT bubble. Its average over the past 20 years has been 1.9%. Exactly five years ago it peaked at 5.2%. So it ought to be difficult to become too excited by the print on Tuesday (which was broadly in line with expectations anyway).
  2. The “core” CPI measure, which cuts out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, had already hit a level of +1.5% this March. What we observed this week was the continued closure of the gap between core CPI and the headline rate. In other words, the pickup in headline inflation tells us more about the dwindling influence of cheap oil than it does about, say, the weakness of sterling.

This is not to dismiss the significance of the CPI data entirely. But if we are looking for the fingerprints of the pound we will not find them here.

And so to PPI: producer price inflation.

There has been a little more drama here. Input prices were again up by more than 7% on the prior year – not at quite as high a rate as for August but nonetheless, this measure is showing more heat now than at any other time since 2011. And this time we know sterling has something to do with it since the core measure of input price inflation, which strips out oil among other things, has also reached levels not matched in almost five years. We should expect this to be the case: with the pound down by over 20% on a trade weighted basis in the past year it is a matter of the “basic laws of economics”, as one of the better comment pieces had it this week (it always a pleasure to find that one has friends in common with people).

That piece also carried a forecast from Lord Haskins, former scion and chairman of Northern Foods, that food price inflation in particular is on track to hit about +5% in a year or so. Again, those “basic laws” do tend to repeat themselves. The last time we had a comparable fall in sterling was during the years 2007-8 when the trade weighted index shed nearly 30%. By mid-2008 that input price inflation had peaked not at +7% but at +35%. Back then the food component of the CPI hit a ceiling only at +14.5% making Lord Haskins’ prediction seem quite mild.

Of course in 2008 this didn’t last. The currency found a level and input price inflation fell away again. The domestic economy was contracting, and output would not fully recover until Q3 2013. Unemployment had already started to rise – though it would take three years to reach its peak of 8.5%. And the housing market was in a state of freefall. (It was not until mid-2014 that the average UK price would recover its 2007 high.)

Back to the present.

Should sterling hold its current level the inflationary impact on producer prices will persist, to a greater or lesser extent, into the summer of next year. And nowadays the position of the economy could hardly be more different.

GDP growth of +2.1% is precisely in line with its 20-year average rate and though such estimates are fertile grounds for analytical controversy is likely to be near or at its trend rate. Similarly unemployment of 4.9% could well be regarded as “full employment” and nationwide house price inflation is still running at over 8%.

Given that Britain’s circumstances are so very different today, what is curious is that the policy response to all this is exactly the same as it was in 2008: interest rate cuts and QE from the Bank of England, and if he can get away with it in next month’s Autumn Statement, fiscal largesse from the Chancellor (gilt yields suggest he might be able to fiddle his way to justifying it despite the lousy borrowing numbers out this morning).

Something about this is not quite right. Perhaps the Bank’s expectations that Brexit will see labour market slack and falling output will be met. But even the Bank acknowledges those Basic Laws. And in only a few months’ time, the clear signs of price inflation simmering away at the bottom of the pot could very easily have erupted into a vigorous boil.

21/10/2016 at 5:01 pm

Quite A Pounding

At midnight last Thursday, the pound fell by more than 6% against the dollar. Its intraday (intranight?) low was 1.1841. Since then, cable has stabilized somewhat. It currently prices at about 1.22, up from a closing low of 1.2123 reached on Tuesday. So what does the pound’s latest “31-year low” – or even “168-year low” – signify, if anything?

First let us consider the very straightforward economic consequences, which are twofold.

On the positive side, the cost of buying British goods and services from abroad, from JCBs to tour bus tickets, falls. This is growth positive. It is also why currency devaluation is one of the most obvious and best understood forms of monetary easing.

On the negative side, the cost of buying foreign goods and services in Britain, from rice to Ritalin, increases. This is growth negative since it compresses margins for importers and makes consumers poorer. This is also why currency devaluation is a risky and unpredictable means of monetary easing.

One key question for the British economy is: which of these two effects will predominate? That depends purely on the inflationary impact. If this is relatively modest then devaluation will increase growth without hitting people’s pockets, or firms’ margins, too forcefully. If it is significant, however, then the devaluation will depress overall economic activity since domestic demand accounts for a far more substantial part of output than exports (62% versus 30% on Q2 GDP data).

It is hazardous to speculate as to which outcome Britain will face. On the one hand, supranationalist media sources are sure the export benefits will be slight and the inflationary impact severe. On the other, Brexiteering sources seem not to have considered the inflation question at all.

One thing we can do is examine the scale of the pound’s recent fall with some detached perspective.

Cable has fallen by 29% since the high of 1.7166 it reached in early July 2014. Its all-time closing low was posted on 26 February 1985 at 1.0520. However the pound has not yet broken through its December 2008 low against the euro (€1.025) or its more recent (2011) low against the yen. Looking at the Bank of England’s trade weighted index, which pits the pound against a basket of other currencies, this week’s low was barely through the previous record level reached in 2008 (73.3 versus 73.4 back then).

It is understandable that the focus of the media should be on the sterling exchange rate which has moved the most dramatically. However, again with some detachment we ought to observe that cable’s recent history has been affected by dollar strength as well as sterling weakness. The Federal Reserve’s trade weighted dollar index has risen by more than 21% since its 2014 low. Indeed, while the pound has fallen by 29% against the greenback the euro has not been far behind, dropping 21% since its own 2014 high point (from $1.39 to $1.10 today). Without wishing to overdo the point about press coverage one does not see headlines in The Economist about “votes of confidence” in the single currency.

Some sources have taken things further, with Bloomberg claiming that the pound has become an emerging market currency: “the new Mexican peso”. Now at the time of the “tequila crisis” back in 1994 the peso more than halved in value against the dollar in under three months. More recently, the Brazilian real almost halved in value as commodity markets collapsed in 2014-15. Again, a little more perspective would be nice.

This is not to downplay the risks arising from imported inflation. The UK’s next CPI and RPI prints will come out on Tuesday. PPI input prices in particular will merit close attention. Year on year they have already rocketed up from -15% to +8% in the space of 12 months. That inflation has to go somewhere: again, either into shrunken margins or consumer’s pockets (and if it persists, most likely both). Back in 2007, RPI inflation rose at around 4-5% and food prices were making tabloid headlines. Inflation also means higher pensions, higher gilt yields and higher public sector wages, all of which is bad news for Britain’s strained fiscal arithmetic.

Furthermore, Mark Carney today confirmed the Bank of England’s insouciant attitude to inflation at a “public roundtable”, saying that while he appreciated that it could cause problems he was willing to see the Bank miss its target to protect against the supposed loss of jobs into next year. (Readers of this blog will know that the MPC officially abandoned its founding mandate back in August). Markets are less complacent: expectations for a further cut in the base rate have evaporated, and the ten year gilt yield has risen to 1.1% from the record low of 0.52% it established only a couple of months ago.

Now price increases were back in the tabloids again just this week. If imported inflation does cause problems, and the Bank does nothing to stop it, then the ugly devaluation scenario may well end up playing out.  Looking at the bigger picture for sterling, and not just the cable rate, we ought not perhaps to panic overmuch. But even at a princely 1.1% the gilt market is not remotely priced either for an uncomfortable patch of price behaviour or the policy normalization required to deal with it. There could be some interesting developments ahead.

14/10/2016 at 5:11 pm

Nobody Knows

During the summer of 2015 this blog dedicated a post to “Brexit”. The discontinuation of the United Kingdom’s European Union membership had become a possibility on the strength of a wafer-thin 12-seat governing majority won in May of that year by the only political party offering a referendum on the subject. Back then, it looked likely that

The economic consequences will equally obviously be argued over with increasing volume as the date for the Breferendum approaches. There is little to be gained by getting into that argument now as the actual consequences would depend on the options available to the UK should the decision to leave the EU be taken.

Lately, however, several analysts have been putting out research pieces making market calls on Brexit. This week the Chancellor himself joined the fray, trying to make it seem during his Budget speech that the Office for Budget Responsibility were all for “remain”. So what has changed? Do we know any more now about the economic or market consequences should Britain vote on 23 June to regain full political self-rule than we did the previous summer?

Mr Osborne said to the House of Commons on Wednesday that such a vote could entail “an extended period of uncertainty” which could depress “business and consumer confidence” and might mean greater volatility in markets. Couched itself in uncertain terms, it was damaging uncertainty which thus formed the substance of the Chancellor’s argument for the UK’s continued adherence to Brussels, and which forms the substance of those of others on his side of the discussion.

Dealing with what ought to be the most obvious point first: markets are quite capable of exhibiting volatility without political assistance. Just look at the past 18 months. First, tumbling oil took 90-day historic volatility on the S&P 500 to its highest level since mid-2012. Then the turmoil over the summer and into the end of last year pushed it up further, into a range not seen since the panic over eurozone sovereign debt and the attendant market crashes of 2011. A Brexit vote might well ginger markets up a bit, but this is nothing new: it has nothing to contribute to the argument one way or another.

The point about business confidence specifically, as opposed to the impact of any future post-Brexit agreements on international trade, needs to be addressed in two different ways.

Firstly, there is now evidence on this subject from business leaders themselves, and they are divided: as the referendum has drawn closer, British executives, entrepreneurs and spokespeople have come out on both sides of the debate. Foreign investors, too, have given conflicting guidance. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs announced donations to the “remain” side back in January, and other Wall Street firms have considered throwing in their lot, hinting at their preparedness to move to Frankfurt or similar. On the other hand, overseas car firms with UK plants began indicating a strong willingness to look through the vote and stay invested in Britain as far back as the autumn. So far, then, there has been uncertainty, but no more concerted gloom from businesspeople than there was several months back.

Secondly, as with markets, the corporate sector – including financial services – must have an eye to considerations beyond the political. Skill sets, regulations, tax, costs – including relocation costs – and other factors all enter the mix. Again, this is nothing new: whatever the decision in June, Mr Osborne and his successors at the Treasury are arguably more important in this context.

Consumer confidence is driven by earnings, employment, house prices, inflation and interest rates. The more secure we feel in work, the more we have to spend and the more stable the required level of our spending on goods and services, the greater our confidence in the economy and the more aggressive our activity within it. The impact of Brexit on those factors is no clearer today than it was after the general election.

Finally, much of the economic analysis of Brexit has centred on the pound. The consensus seems to be for devaluation to one degree or another (20% from Goldman Sachs earlier in the year). Yet when Scotland looked like it might vote to leave the United Kingdom back in September 2014 the most significant one day fall in the trade weighted sterling index was -0.9%. The splitting up of the currency’s economic area was a real prospect at that time yet it hardly budged. Again, this analysis is purely speculative, and for the same, over-arching reason: it is trying to analyse something which doesn’t exist.

Should the UK “vote leave” this June, then, there may be market turbulence attributable to this. Nobody knows – just as nobody knew back in the summer.

Brexit would be a historically significant political event, not an economic one. And should it occur, then whether it would present more of a threat to or opportunity for the country’s economy would depend on the political response.

Readers may well have their own opinions on how confident, or otherwise, to feel about this.

18/03/2016 at 5:28 pm

Great Expectations

A speech to the G20 summit in Shanghai from the Governor of the Bank of England has drawn some media interest today. Mark Carney’s words of caution to his fellow central bankers on the subject of negative interest rates centred on the “zero sum game” of seeking export-led recovery. He noted, quite rightly, that “beggar-thy-neighbour” policies at the country level would do nothing to address the sluggishness of global demand. And only on Tuesday he told the Treasury Select Committee that Britain’s policy rate would not go negative.

He did, however, say that it might be cut.

Sterling hit a new trade-weighted low on Wednesday and has now fallen by more than 10% from its August peak to a level last seen two years ago. Now the downward trend started back in November and has also received a helping hand from David Cameron’s successful reform of the European Union last Friday. But Governor Carney’s words, and those of his colleagues on the MPC this week, do undermine the credibility of his Chinese lecture at least a little.

This is especially the case since the pound’s impact on inflation has long been singled out in the Bank’s quarterly reports on the subject. A bout of moderate currency weakness could give a nice boost to CPI, if only on a forecast basis, bringing it closer to the target rate of 2% per annum without the MPC having to resort to any further loosening of policy over the coming months. And the side effect of a positive impact on British exports is just something the Bank would, regrettably of course, have to live with.

Look at the last Inflation Report and the underlying data, however, and even sterling is a side-show. As so often over the past 18 months the big news is oil.

This blog wrote about the impact of energy prices on the Bank’s assumptions for inflation back in November. Since then the effect has grown. Oil price assumptions for this year and next are down by 34% and 29% respectively; forecasts for gas prices down by 24% and 21%. On the MPC’s arithmetic this is in the process of translating into added deflationary pressure in 2016 of 0.4% p.a. by way of petrol prices and gas bills alone, with additional effects via the pass through of lower production costs (this being more difficult to time as well as to quantify).

It is, then, unsurprising that it has been oil, not sterling, which has exerted the more powerful pressure on interest rate expectations. These were already very benign, with UK rates only expected to rise late this year or some time into next. Look at futures markets today, however, and they are not pricing in any chance of policy tightening until the second half of 2018, with the base rate remaining under 1% until at least the end of the following year. As with the pound this change has been quite rapid. The 3-month LIBOR future for December 2019, which now prices at 1.02%, was priced at 2% on New Year’s Eve.

While the press looks to the pound, therefore, the rates market has been looking at the oil price.

And yet even the February Inflation Report is rightly cautious on this subject. It notes that the drag from lower energy prices will unwind over time, and that its CPI forecast on a three year view is broadly unchanged. Elsewhere it further notes that the labour market has strengthened more rapidly than expected back in the autumn: in fact it now forecasts UK unemployment of 4.8% both this year and next, revised down from 5.2% and 5.0% respectively. This is nothing less than a prediction of full employment, if the history of the last forty years is any guide. And at the same time the ratio of vacancies to the total labour force has risen again. This measure averaged 1.5x over the period 2010-12, when the UK labour market stagnated around an 8% level. Then it rose to 1.7x in 2013 and 2.0x in 2014, a time of rapid jobs growth which saw unemployment reduce to 5.7%. For 2015 the ratio hit 2.3x and unemployment already stood as low as 5.1% come December.

Under normal circumstances this would ignite at least an amber warning of cost pressures by way of wage increases. At present, however, this pressure is contained by the current low level of headline CPI, as the Bank also notes. (What the Bank doesn’t note but is nonetheless equally material is that low inflation has a direct impact on wage settlements in the public sector – about one in every six jobs in Britain – together with pensions and other welfare payments.)

The UK is close to full employment, the deflationary impact of a strong pound has fallen away in short order and price pressures are being contained only by the continued weakness of a commodity whose average annual price change in either direction over the last ten calendar years has been 30%. Interest rate markets are expecting this happy circumstance to persist for at least the next two to three years. From some perspectives – that of the property market, for instance – it would be lovely if they were right. But the more prudent thing to do, surely, is to think about what might happen if they are not.

Let us leave the last word to the Bank of England:

“At its meeting ending on 3 February, the MPC judged it appropriate to leave the stance of monetary policy unchanged . . . All members agree that, given the likely persistence of the headwinds weighing on the economy, when Bank Rate does begin to rise, it is expected to do so more gradually and to a lower level than in recent cycles.

This guidance is an expectation, not a promise. The actual path Bank Rate will follow over the next few years will depend on the economic circumstances.

26/02/2016 at 4:04 pm

Another Year Over

Well so much for 2015. It was a curious year for the major asset classes and a frustrating one for many investors, including those in the UK. Still, now it has passed we can look at the numbers, identify the winners and losers and remind ourselves that the only reliably immovable feature of the financial landscape is uncertainty.

Starting with UK equity an initially record-breaking year unwound to deliver a disappointing total return of -1% to the FTSE 100 Index. It was a very different story for the mid- and small-cap indices, however, which are less exposed to energy price and currency effects and posted numbers of +11.4% and +9.5% respectively.

On the fixed income front it was a tough year for gilts. Markets which might have been expected to benefit from “risk off” nervousness struggled in the face of the anticipated gradual unwinding of emergency monetary conditions both here and across the Atlantic. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch conventional gilt index managed to return only +0.5% last year with the index-linked index actually losing 1.2%.

Corporate bonds did a little better, with the BoA ML sterling non-gilt benchmark delivering +0.7%. The sterling high yield bond market is tiny (with a face value of £48bn, about the size of Diageo’s market cap), but for what it is worth returned a creditable 5.4%. High yield returns in Europe (+0.8%) and the US (-4.6%) give a more representative idea of what might have been secured by UK-based investors in this asset class, however, and the combined $1.7trn market here was dented by the collapse of borrowers in the US energy sector.

Away from smaller-cap equity and high yield the really bright spot was the property market. Commercial property continued its strong recovery, with price growth underpinning a 19.1% return to the IPD All Property Index (over the year to November, the most recent month for which data is available). And though the residential market lost a little heat last year it was up by 9% on the year to November in price terms using the smoothed HBOS house price series.

Cash rates hardly moved in 2015 as one would expect with the Bank rate frozen at 0.5%: the NS&I Income Bond rate stood at 1.25% with term fixes from the banking sector available a few bp higher. Key exchange rate moves were (as one would also expect) rather more exciting: the pound fell by 5.4% against the dollar, 5.0% against the yen and 4.9% against the Swiss franc while managing to put on 5.4% against the euro.

The most significant market move of all came from commodities with the price of oil down by more than 31% in sterling terms over the course of the year. Gold also fell, the GBP price losing 5.3%.

Finally a brief look at some of the other key international markets (all in local currency terms).

  • It was a disappointing year for US equity with the S&P 500 returning only 1.4%.
  • Europe did better, paying investors 7.4%, while Japan was best of the major markets with a total return of just over 12%.
  • Major government bond markets did very slightly better than gilts with the BoA ML US Treasury Index returning 0.8% and the Euro Government Index 1.6%.
  • More interestingly, the top performers in the eurozone were the weaker peripheral countries with the Italy index returning nearly 5% and Greece – recovering from price depression into the start of the year – delivering over 20%.
  • During the year Greek politics were usurped by the Chinese stock market as the financial world’s bête noire. So it is interesting that the Shanghai Composite Index, despite all its intra-year turmoil, posted a return of +11.2% across 2015 as a whole.

It was a year of turbulence and surprises, though one or two of these numbers did turn out roughly as the consensus had expected at the start of the year. How the consensus, along with the rest of us, will do during 2016 we will all discover in due course …

04/01/2016 at 5:02 pm

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