The Year That Was

03/01/2014 at 4:22 pm

With 2014 now a few days old it is time to have a look at what markets delivered during 2013. (All returns data is given in GBP terms.)

Equities

The risk-on pattern established from the summer of 2012 continued, with the MSCI World Index returning exactly 25%. Of this, 23% had been reached by the time of the Japanese market crash towards the end of May. Risk-on was highly selective, however. By the same point, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index had lagged on concerns over growth in developed markets, delivering only 8.1%. EM took a particularly hard battering in the weeks that followed. With recovery into year end only partial, returns for the whole period were modestly negative and trailed the World Index by a staggering 29.3%.

Variety within these numbers was enormous. While markets in Nigeria, Bulgaria and Argentina all returned around 40-45%, stock indices in Brazil, Turkey and Peru lost around 30%. Among developed markets the US did best, delivering 29.7%. The Nikkei 225 and Euro Stoxx 50 were close behind, returning 26.5% and 25.8% respectively; and the FTSE 100 turned in a most respectable 19.2%.

Fixed Income

Major government markets generally had a poor year. The 10-year gilt yield rose by 1.2% to close at 3% – exactly the same story as for the 10-year US treasury. Japan did better, closing broadly flat at 0.7%, and Germany wound up somewhere in between, with the 10-year bund yield creeping up from 1.3% to 1.9%.

In returns terms the top performers came from the eurozone periphery, with the Greek market delivering an extremely un-bondlike 40%. Spanish and Irish markets returned 14%, paltry by comparison, but again, rather extraordinary for government markets. Allowing for currency weakness the poorest performers were South Africa, Australia and Japan, which lost 18-20%; in local currency terms, however, it was the big developed markets which fared worst.

Credit generally had a storming time. The iTraxx main index of European CDS prices registered a fall in investment-grade spreads from 117bp to 70bp, only 5bp above the post-crunch low seen in January 2010. The crossover index, a measure of high yield risk pricing, saw spreads fall by almost 2%, smashing through similar lows to reach 282bp, a level not witnessed since late 2007. The exception was emerging market sovereign debt. Here, the BofA / Merrill Lynch index of hard-currency-denominated bonds from EM issuers saw spreads rise from 248bp to 297bp with the weakness concentrated in the first half of the year.

Currencies

After a shaky start the pound had a respectable year, closing 1.7% higher on a trade-weighted basis. It was little changed against the dollar and the euro (about 2% stronger and 2% weaker respectively), though put on 19% against the yen. In fact, only a handful of what Bloomberg calls the “expanded majors” beat it, with the top performer in that basket being the Israeli shekel, which topped sterling by 5.5%. The Chinese yuan, subject as it is to a policy of gradual, managed revaluation, gained 1% against the GBP, and a couple of the emerging European countries squeaked a little higher too.

At the bottom of the pile the action was much more dramatic: emerging market currencies from South America to the Far East tumbled by as much as 20+%.

Commodities

Appearing as they now do on various currency screens it seems appropriate to link this section with the last one by starting out with a look at gold and silver. And what an unpleasant sight meets the eyes: gold dropped by 29% against the pound and silver by 37%. In fact, in its “home” currency of US dollars, gold saw a twelve-year bull run end in 2013 and its biggest yearly percentage fall since 1981. (The latter point also goes for silver.)

It was a quiet year for oil, with the near Brent future flat over a year which saw price volatility reach some key lows. More interesting was the gas market, with the NYMEX future rising by 26%, its second consecutive annual increase.

Less interesting from an investment point of view but of some economic interest, the Bloomberg index of industrial metals prices dropped by 8% while the Baltic Dry Index of freight more than tripled (+226%).

Property

Last, but for UK investors especially, far from least: bricks and mortar. The Nationwide index of house prices for December was out this morning and showed an increase of 8.4% on the year, the highest rate since June 2010.

Commercial property has had a duller time. IPD data for December is not yet available but the trend in recent months has been positive and we are on course for an increase in capital value across all sectors (retail, office and industrial) of about 2.5% for the year. Interestingly, this index remains 36% below its 2007 peak, and lower even than the previous high reached in 1989.

In Conclusion …

2013 presented investors with a decidedly mixed bag of results. Past performance is of course no guide to future returns and it would be otiose to extrapolate from or over-interpret them. What is clear, however, is that trends in some markets have been much more pronounced than others; and although much market behaviour has been logically and intuitively correlative, in some cases these trends have diverged to the point of incompatibility. Should they reconverge in 2014 it could be a good year for investors – if we manage to find ourselves on the right side of the reconvergence …

Advertisements

Entry filed under: Posts. Tags: , , , , , , .

Themes For The Future The French Infection?


Recent Posts